Mesoscale Discussion 1352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019

   Areas affected...Coastal Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031731Z - 031930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to
   develop this afternoon near a surface trough over the coastal plain
   and on the sea breeze front.  The strongest storms will be capable
   of gusts 50-60mph and hail 0.50-1.50 inch in diameter.  The expected
   coverage of the severe risk will probably preclude the need for a
   severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon shows
   storm development near Cape Fear and Cape Lookout.  Towering cumulus
   is now evident near the Grand Strand.  The initial stages of a
   cumulus field are developing over the coastal plain of SC.  Surface
   observations show an extremely moist airmass along the immediate
   coast with upper 70s to lower 80s dewpoints as temperatures warm
   into the lower 90s.  

   KLTX VAD shows 10-15kt southerly low-level flow veering to
   west-northwesterly in the mid levels and increasing to 40kt.  As a
   result, the wind profile over the Grand Strand and Cape Fear
   vicinity is slightly stronger and more supportive for organized
   multicells than farther north near Cape Hatteras and farther south
   near Charleston. 

   Forecast soundings indicate a very unstable airmass (3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE) is in place despite modest 700-500mb lapse rates.  With PW
   around 1.8-1.9 inches and steepening 0-2km lapse rates, it seems
   plausible several microbursts yielding 50-60mph gusts are possible. 
   The stronger updrafts could result in localized marginally severe
   hail before greater convective overturning occurs by late afternoon.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 07/03/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

   LAT...LON   32968023 34177935 35027793 35197668 34867637 32637984
               32968023