Mesoscale Discussion 1337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0845 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019

   Areas affected...Northeastern Montana...northwestern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

   Valid 020145Z - 020315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms will continue to pose a risk for
   severe hail and wind into the 8-10 PM MDT time frame, particularly
   north of the Missouri River, from Wolf Point MT into the Williston
   ND vicinity, into the international border area.

   DISCUSSION...Most prominent upscale convective growth has generally
   remained north of the southern Saskatchewan border, associated with
   forcing for ascent in the left exit region of the seasonably strong
   westerly mid/upper jet.  Severe weather potential across far
   northeastern Montana into northwestern North Dakota (generally
   near/north of the Missouri River) may largely hinge of the extent
   and strength of surface cold pool development on the southern flank
   of this activity, now straddling the international border area. 
   This remains somewhat unclear, but the environment east/southeast of
   this activity appears to remain potentially unstable (CAPE of 1000
   J/kg) as far east as areas near/north of Williston.

   Otherwise, it is also possible that the intense cell which produced
   a strong downburst across the Glasgow area within the past hour may
   maintain strength another couple of hours.  It has accelerated
   east-southeastward at up to 45 kt, along a track that could take it
   east of Wolf Point into the Williston area between 02-04Z.

   ..Kerr.. 07/02/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47610646 47980580 48360550 48890482 49670434 50890431
               51290354 50680194 49150232 47870409 47510586 47610646