Mesoscale Discussion 1281
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1004 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

   Areas affected...southern Minnesota...western Wisconsin...northeast
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280304Z - 280530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing in southern Minnesota and western
   Wisconsin. Severe hail is the primary threat, although severe wind
   is possible if storms can grow upscale into a QLCS.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving over the
   Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes this evening and spreading ascent
   across the region. Additionally, the low-level jet has strengthened
   also helping to develop these elevated storms. Storms are expected
   to develop/move along an instability gradient oriented northwest to
   southeast across the area with MUCAPE/MLCAPE values of 500-3000
   J/kg. Given 40-55 knots of effective bulk shear per mesoanalysis,
   supercellular structures are possible within the developing storm
   cluster with large hail as the primary threat. Additionally, given
   the presence of the low-level jet and upper-level shortwave trough,
   upscale growth cannot be ruled out, which would increase severe wind
   potential. Given uncertainty on convective evolution, a watch
   issuance is unlikely at this time, but trends will be monitored
   closely.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43259254 43229326 43209404 43309460 43579469 43939458
               44169424 44539306 44819220 45219133 45229094 44989063
               44329059 44019065 43649097 43389167 43349200 43259254