Mesoscale Discussion 1193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

   Valid 220932Z - 221100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and hail continues across
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423. A downstream watch may be needed
   across southeast KS and adjacent portions of far southwest MO and
   far northeast OK.

   DISCUSSION...Convective cluster ongoing near EWK in central KS
   continues to surge southeastward at 40 kt. Recent reflectivity
   trends suggest some weakening has occurred over the past hour. SLN
   and EWK reported 45 kt and 37 kt gusts, respectively, as the line
   moved through. Downstream air mass across southeast KS and adjacent
   portions of far southwest MO and far northeast OK remains
   characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and strong potential
   buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). However, a nocturnally
   stabilized boundary layer cast some doubt regarding the strength and
   coverage of any wind gusts. One factor suggesting re-intensification
   is the remnant outflow from preceding storms. This boundary could
   act to augment storm strength, increasing the potential for strong
   wind gusts. Current storm motion takes the cluster to the edge of
   the watch around 10Z. Trends are being monitored closely and
   downstream watch may be needed.

   Farther northwest, isolated hail remains possible with the elevated
   storms across north-central KS. In this region, effective bulk shear
   around 50 kt and MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg will support storm
   organization, with storms occasionally becoming strong enough to
   produce severe hail.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38759924 39829889 39599627 38359455 37519419 36829458
               36519509 36759645 37259765 38759924