Mesoscale Discussion 1182
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

   Areas affected...northeast KS into far southeast NE and northwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 212324Z - 220030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored across the area and a severe
   thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A very unstable airmass resides across eastern KS into
   western MO this evening. Much of this region remains capped,
   however, a myriad of boundaries exist across the area. This includes
   various outflow boundaries from the bow echoes that moved southeast
   across MO earlier today as well as a quasi-warm frontal boundary
   arcing into southeast NE and northwest MO. Aforementioned capping
   may limit thunderstorm development initially. However, towering
   cumulus from Marshall County KS into far southeast NE appears to be
   near convective initiation as radar echoes continue to deepen and
   intensify. As a 35+ kt south/southwesterly low level jet increases
   through the evening, convection is expected to increase in coverage
   and intensity. Most of this activity will likely be elevated above
   the 850-700 MB warm layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates
   around 8 C/km and a supercell vertical wind profile will support
   large hail in the strongest storms. Convection is expected to
   develop into clusters along the west-east oriented surface
   boundaries, which may temper a greater hail threat. While convection
   should mostly remain elevated, there is some very low/conditional
   potential along the surface boundaries that a storm could briefly
   become surface based. If this occurs, low level hodographs/backed
   surface winds, resulting in large SRH values coupled with mean
   mixing ratios greater than 16 g/kg could support a brief tornado.  

   How far south and east convection eventually evolves into the
   nighttime hours remains somewhat unclear given the remnant cold pool
   across much of MO from earlier bow echo. But at least some corridor
   of relatively greater potential exists across the MCD area and a
   severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next hour or so.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 06/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39679725 40399612 40649535 40739437 40619325 40189249
               39759239 39159258 38969291 38709417 38529582 38379673
               38149735 38399768 38869772 39419746 39679725