Mesoscale Discussion 1174
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast NE...Southwest
   IA...Northwest/North-Central MO...Northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

   Valid 211226Z - 211400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts continues across the region
   as two mesoscale convective systems track quickly southeastward.

   DISCUSSION...Southern end of the leading MCS currently extending
   from central IA into northern KS/MO border vicinity has maintained
   its strength over the past hour or so, with some strengthening
   recently noted. Portion of the line in MO is moving orthogonal to
   the instability gradient, with mesoanalysis estimating 3000-3500
   J/kg of MLCAPE near Kansas City decreasing to less than 1000 J/kg
   near CDJ (in north-central MO). Consequently, storms near Kansas
   City are the most intense and gust of 51 kt was reported at LWC as
   the line went through around 1115Z. Well-organized character of this
   MCS coupled with ample instability and moderate vertical shear
   suggest MCS persistence over the next few hours across
   northern/central MO. Current storm motion of this MCS is
   southeastward at 30 kt, placing it at the edge of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 414 around 1430Z. A downstream watch will likely
   be needed.

   Second MCS currently extends from just east of BIE (in southeast NE)
   to south of CNK (in northeast KS). This line had shown signs of
   weakening but recently reinvigorated as it moved into the more
   buoyant air across southeast NE/northeast KS. BIE recently reported
   a 55 kt gust as the line moved through. As with the line ahead of
   it, this MCS is currently expected persistence for at least the next
   few hours. Given storm intensity, some areal expansion along the
   southern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414 may be needed across
   northeast KS. Current storm motion is southeastward at 40-45 kt,
   which is faster than the leading MCS. As result, these two systems
   may eventually interact, although when this occurs and the resulting
   effects are uncertain.

   ..Mosier.. 06/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40299733 41389619 41389455 40549229 39049233 38419357
               38779616 39359788 40299733