Mesoscale Discussion 1133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern
   Illinois...Indiana...and western Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191634Z - 191830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase and intensification of thunderstorms
   could yield at least some increase in risk for potentially damaging
   wind gusts by 3-5 PM EDT.  While it is not yet certain that a severe
   weather watch will be needed, trends will continue to be monitored
   for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...An increase in thunderstorm development has become
   evident within an arcing corridor, east-southeast of a remnant
   elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation, across central through
   southeastern Illinois.  This is coinciding with diurnal boundary
   layer destabilization within the warm sector of a broad weak area of
   low pressure now centered over north central Missouri, and forecast
   to only slowly shift eastward today.

   West-southwesterly deep layer mean ambient wind fields across much
   of Illinois and Indiana into Ohio are only on the order of 20-25 kt,
   with substantive strengthening associated with a mid-level speed
   maximum propagating east of the south central Plains likely to
   remain to the southwest of the region.  This seems likely to limit
   severe weather potential, in general.  However, as inhibition
   continues to weaken for warming, seasonably moist boundary layer
   parcels characterized by CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, there appears
   potential for further intensification and upscale growth of
   convection that could gradually become accompanied by at least some
   increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through 19-21Z.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40868738 41128566 40818466 40298364 39148398 38248585
               38438719 39328896 39699052 41018983 40868738