Mesoscale Discussion 1125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Kansas into extreme
   northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 395...

   Valid 190009Z - 190215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 395 continues.

   SUMMARY...The more intense cells embedded within the MCS may produce
   isolated severe hail and perhaps a few damaging wind gusts.
   Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of WW
   extensions.

   DISCUSSION...Cold pools from earlier quasi-discrete/transient
   supercells have recently merged to support a semi-coherent
   forward-propagating MCS across portions of southeast Kansas. This
   MCS is moving into an airmass that gradually stabilizes with
   eastward extent. In addition, the onset of nocturnal cooling will
   further stabilize the boundary layer and increase inhibition aloft.
   As such, convection is expected to become gradually elevated with
   time. In addition, relatively weak low-level shear has also allowed
   convective outflow to outpace the MCS along portions of the leading
   line. 

   It is thus uncertain how far the MCS will progress past a 2-4 hour
   time frame (with some of the latest HRRR runs depicting a
   semi-discrete line maintaining itself until around 02-03Z). Until
   then, some of the stronger storms may continue to produce isolated
   severe hail, with a couple damaging wind gusts also possible. Given
   the aforementioned temporal uncertainties, convective trends will
   continue to be monitored for the possibility of localized WW
   extensions if the MCS maintains intensity past the currently covered
   counties.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37699849 37539778 37709659 38149574 38129540 37989500
               37589462 37069455 36899488 36809531 36909593 36969642
               37039671 37059762 37249822 37699849