Mesoscale Discussion 1123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0416 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

   Areas affected...Central into southern and eastern Kansas...far
   western Missouri...far northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 395...

   Valid 182116Z - 182315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 395 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0395.
   Severe hail (including a few 2.0+ inch stones), damaging wind gusts,
   and a couple tornadoes remain possible. Strong to severe storms are
   also beginning to approach the eastern bounds of the watch, where
   localized extensions may be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...A mix of multicellular and supercell thunderstorms have
   become sustained along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone, left
   behind by an ongoing MCV located in central KS. These storms are
   supported by modest lift from the MCV, along with modest buoyancy
   (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer directional shear is prevalent
   across the central Plains, overall weak troposheric flow has led to
   relatively poor speed shear throughout both a deep-layer, and the
   low levels. As such, supercell storms have only exhibited transient
   low-level rotation thus far, with storm-generated cold pools quickly
   merging to produce a more linear convective mode, particularly
   across eastern portions of the watch. 

   Some of these linear segments however, have become more sustained
   given that the deep-layer shear vector (however weak) is oriented
   roughly orthogonal to the convective line. As such, despite
   relatively weak buoyancy downstream, a few of the more organized
   linear segments across the easternmost portions of Tornado Watch
   0395 may propagate out of the watch, where localized extensions may
   be necessary.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38380003 38289888 38469718 39189651 39469619 39539525
               39419465 39019437 38369447 38029518 37209572 37059727
               37029907 37140007 38380003