Mesoscale Discussion 1102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kentucky...Southern
   Indiana...Southern Ohio...Much of West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171740Z - 171945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are
   expected to form this afternoon.  Locally damaging wind gusts are
   the main threat.  Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows mostly clear skies and
   relatively strong heating occurring over much of KY, where dewpoints
   near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 
   Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form over the higher terrain
   of southeast KY, and areas of cu/tcu are beginning to develop over
   other parts of the region.  CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms
   will increase in coverage through the afternoon, with activity
   spreading into adjacent parts of IN/OH/WV.  Forecast soundings
   indicate that vertical shear is strongest near the Ohio river and
   weakens with southward extent, but rather steep low level lapse
   rates and sufficient CAPE may result in a few organized multicell
   clusters capable of locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Hart/Guyer.. 06/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38838558 39328170 38958029 38018042 37218201 36678412
               37158660 38368705 38838558