Mesoscale Discussion 1090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas...northern
   Louisiana...northwestern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161653Z - 161900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may gradually overspread the region
   through mid to late afternoon.  Locally heavy rainfall and cloud to
   ground lightning appear the primary hazards, but a few locally
   strong wind gusts may also be possible.

   DISCUSSION...There may be at least some gradual intensification of
   thunderstorm development ongoing, likely in response inflow of
   seasonably moist boundary layer air becoming characterized by
   increasingly large CAPE (up to 3000 J/kg) with insolation. 
   Strongest convection is generally focused along the leading edge of
   remnant outflow associated with overnight convection, now
   north/northeast of College Station and Lufkin TX, Natchitoches and
   Monroe LA, into areas west and north of Greenwood MS.  

   Subtle height falls/lift ahead of approaching low-amplitude
   mid-level troughing may be contributing to support.  However,
   activity is embedded within the western flank of larger-scale
   low-level ridging (currently centered off the Atlantic coast).  This
   seems likely to continue to limit the potential for a substantive
   increase in severe weather potential.

   Furthermore, convection appears embedded within seasonably modest to
   weak southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow, which is largely
   parallel to the outflow boundaries.  So, eastward and southeastward
   advancement will be slow, but a combination of heavy precipitation
   loading and downward momentum transport could be accompanied by
   northeastward surging segments within the line, and perhaps
   localized surface gusts approaching severe limits into mid/late
   afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31629605 31789539 31839474 32069416 32229361 32569265
               33479168 33499150 33959067 34678985 34508871 32908964
               31249238 30289531 30549630 31219633 31629605