Mesoscale Discussion 1003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast LA...Southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061430Z - 061530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes is increasing
   and tornado watch will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase in updraft
   strength and rotation with the supercells embedded within the
   convective line moving across southeast LA. Mesoanalysis estimates
   over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists ahead of this line, promoted by a
   very moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper
   70s. Southerly/south-southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line
   are also relatively strong, with 20 kt reported at several stations
   south of the Lake Pontchartrain. Recent VAD profiles from both LIX
   and MOB show 20+ kt of 0-1 km vertical shear and over 100 m2/s2 of
   0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Given the current trends and
   favorable downstream air mass, a tornado watch will likely be needed
   soon.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 06/06/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30749091 31269048 31208853 29538877 29269032 29459147
               30299111 30749091