Mesoscale Discussion 0981
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327...

   Valid 050034Z - 050130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe storms continue through the
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms in the southern High Plains have had transient
   stronger cores with several reports of severe hail. Expect this
   threat to continue given the unstable environment and mid-level
   lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 C/km per 00Z EPZ and MAF RAOB. The best
   sustained storm has been in the Davis Mountains where MESH has
   indicated hail in excess of 1.5 inches for over an hour. The EPZ
   RAOB shows 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow which is stronger than
   most forecast guidance suggested. This shear profile would support
   greater storm organization if this mid-level flow were able to
   overspread the unstable warm sector in eastern New Mexico and West
   Texas. However, the slow progression and orientation of the upper
   trough will likely not allow this stronger mid-level flow to spread
   much farther east. The 00Z MAF sounding showed very weak mid-level
   flow (10 to 20 knots) which would explain why storm organization has
   struggled. A southeasterly low-level jet is expected to strengthen
   to 30 to 35 knots later this evening which may help to organize
   these storms into an eastward propagating MCS. However, the
   aforementioned lack of shear will likely limit the overall threat
   and preclude the need for an additional watch east of watch 327.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 06/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33940621 34120583 34200515 34050392 32240314 31230272
               30640254 30090249 29740278 29560319 29620419 30040462
               30580490 31870543 32960574 33550615 33940621