Mesoscale Discussion 0964
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032055Z - 032300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Cumulus agitation is increasing along a south of an
   outflow boundary across northeast Kansas. While storm initiation is
   uncertain, isolated thunderstorms activity may develop and pose a
   marginally severe hail and damaging wind gust threat. Due to
   uncertainty with regard to initiation, a WW is not currently
   expected. Trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from an early morning MCS has shown
   signs of increasing cumulus agitation over the last hour with a few
   stronger echoes showing up on KTWX radar imagery. Backed surface
   winds along and on the cool side of the boundary have increased
   effective bulk shear to around 30-35 kts. Strong heating and mid to
   upper 60s dewpoints support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Given the
   overall weak forcing, storm initiation and coverage are uncertain.
   Should a storm or two form, they would likely be discrete and
   capable of marginally severe hail and damaging wind gust. The area
   most favorable for initiation should be along a north/south
   confluence axis south of Topeka where greater cumulus agitation is
   noted on visible satellite. Though low-level flow is quite weak, a
   narrow window for a tornado will exist should a storm interact with
   the outflow boundary where effective helicity would be maximized. A
   WW is not likely at this time given the degree of uncertainty with
   regard to storm initiation.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/03/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38769655 39279660 39669658 39899575 39349475 38719455
               38319458 38169510 38179570 38769655