Mesoscale Discussion 0924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2019

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast Wisconsin...far northern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011905Z - 012100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have initiated in southwest Wisconsin with
   an increase in coverage expected into more of southern Wisconsin and
   northern Illinois. Damaging wind gusts and severe hail will be the
   primary threats. A WW will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed near the Dane/Iowa County,
   WI border in the last hour. Activity has been weak thus far given
   the ample amounts of cloud cover across much of southern Wisconsin.
   Southeastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois have remained
   relatively cloud free and have warmed to mid 70s F to low 80s F,
   away from the influence of the lake breeze. Objective mesoanalysis
   shows MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg south of the warm frontal
   boundary. Moderate mid-level flow of around 40 kts will foster
   enough deep-layer shear for storm organization into multicells with
   perhaps a few supercell structures as well. Greatest threat will
   likely be damaging wind gusts, particularly where greatest
   insolation/low-level lapse rates exists. Transient low-level
   rotation will also be possible near the boundary where winds are
   most backed. However, overall weak low-level flow and storm mode
   issues will greatly limit tornado potential. A WW is likely to be
   issued soon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   42008913 42198974 42688996 42958994 43228983 43298859
               43058795 42708770 42128771 42058787 42048827 42008913