Mesoscale Discussion 0862
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0508 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast New York...far northern New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 274...

   Valid 282208Z - 282345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated, marginal severe threat may exist with the
   more sustained storms just north of the warm front. Damaging wind
   gusts may occur, with a few hailstones exceeding 1 inch in diameter
   and perhaps a brief tornado also possible over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell development, with transient
   low-level rotation, has been noted in Delaware County, New York
   within the past hour or so. These storms have been fluctuating in
   intensity, and are expected to remain north of the warm front (where
   better buoyancy resides). Nonetheless, ample speed and directional
   shear are in place to support marginal severe with the more intense
   updrafts. A few damaging wind gusts will be possible. In addition,
   favorable deep-layer shear may also support a few hailstones
   reaching 1.0 inches in diameter. Long, curved hodographs also depict
   a favorable low-level shear environment to support a brief tornado
   with any storm that can be sustained, and root into the boundary
   layer closer to the warm front.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42037560 42257530 42067476 41557399 41087358 40857379
               40837413 41147473 42037560