Mesoscale Discussion 0858
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282023Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is likely to increase into this evening
   with severe storms possible across portions of eastern Colorado and
   northwest Kansas. Severe hail/wind would be the primary threats and
   a watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in eastern Colorado along an area
   of surface convergence, possibly westward extension of the surface
   low/trough. Additionally, there is building Cu extending southeast
   along an axis of surface convergence. An upper-level trough is
   slowly moving eastward, with height falls noted over the area and
   500 mb temperatures decreasing below -15 C, and the surface
   low/cyclone is likely to track east-northeast this evening/tonight. 

   Mid-level lapse rates will continue to steepen and with surface
   convergence, a few storms are expected to develop and intensify. A
   relatively sharp west-east gradient of 500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
   should allow storms to develop with effective bulk shear of 40-60
   knots indicating the potential supercell development. Given the
   CAPE/shear, large hail is possible and damaging wind gusts are also
   possible given the strong synoptic winds and near adiabatic
   low-level lapse rates due to insolation. Though there remains some
   uncertainty regarding severe storm coverage across the area, a watch
   is possible.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40110064 40019966 39929920 39529888 38969881 38479893
               38259944 38139983 38200018 38290099 38470235 38590303
               38850344 39080366 39370345 39740280 39970183 40110064