Mesoscale Discussion 0850
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Areas affected...northern Indiana...northern Ohio...eastern
   Illinois...far southern Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 281616Z - 281815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop from eastern Illinois
   through northern Ohio in the next couple of hours. Some of the
   storms will become severe with large hail and damaging winds as the
   primary threats. A watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Enhanced mid-level westerly flow of 45-70 knots is
   currently streaming over the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley with an
   embedded shortwave trough likely over Iowa per
   mesoanalysis/satellite imagery. A surface front stretches across
   northern Indiana into southern Michigan with temperatures now
   reaching into the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lows 70s
   south of the front across eastern Illinois through central/northern
   Ohio. Building Cu is evident via visible satellite imagery, although
   some signs of surface stability remain with wave clouds noted. This
   area will become uncapped in the next couple of hours with storms
   likely intensifying quickly along another surface boundary that may
   be a remnant outflow boundary or pseudo-effective warm front
   stretching west-east through northern Indiana/northern Ohio.

   Mostly unidirectional/speed shear and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
   indicate that severe hail/wind will be the primary threats. However,
   a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any discrete
   supercell interacting with a surface boundary. Storm splitting is
   likely to occur and discrete supercells may grow upscale and
   coalesce into a cluster or two this afternoon as they move eastward.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 05/28/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39908691 39868865 40268886 40798875 41198822 41518710
               41718619 41908512 41918406 41888288 41728129 41588089
               41278073 40688059 40398060 40208066 40088078 39998110
               39938192 39908691