Mesoscale Discussion 0794
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Idaho...far northern Utah...far western
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252146Z - 260015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Very isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally
   severe hail are possible during the afternoon hours with the
   stronger storms. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous semi-discrete convective cells and convective
   clusters have developed over the past few hours, aided by large
   scale ascent provided by a mid-level shortwave trough, and with the
   onset of peak heating. Mixing of the boundary layer has generated
   steep low-level (0-3km) lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km, resulting in
   over 100 J/kg MLCAPE across the region. While overall buoyancy and
   deep-layer shear is quite modest, low-level directional shear is
   present, evident via RAP forecast soundings depicting curved
   low-level hodographs with up to 150 m2/s2 effective SRH. 

   The net result will be for some storms to attain a degree of
   organization. Stronger storms producing downdrafts within a
   relatively dry sfc-700 mb layer amidst the aforementioned steep
   low-level lapse rates will have the propensity to produce damaging
   wind gusts given the ample evaporative cooling that would commence
   between the sfc to 700 mb. Given some of the steeper lapse rates
   aloft, a few of the strongest storms may also produce marginally
   severe hail. Given the overall meager instability, the severe threat
   is expected to be sparse in nature, and a WW issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

   LAT...LON   41331303 41711367 43441380 43971313 44211278 44101213
               44101127 43381087 41871070 41441191 41331303