Mesoscale Discussion 0776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Dakota...far western
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242243Z - 250045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remains possible with the more
   intense cells that can take advantage of the vertical
   vorticity/low-level buoyancy rich environment. Given the sparse
   nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A 1002 mb low is currently translating across central
   North Dakota. Close to and immediately east of the low, over 200
   J/kg 0-3 km CAPE is in place, roughly co-located with relatively
   high values of ambient vertically oriented near-surface vorticity.
   In addition, eastward storm motions amidst an ambient environment
   characterized by curved low-level hodographs (with MVX VAD profiler
   data suggesting over 200 m2/s2 03-km SRH) suggest that supercell
   structures may be achieved. 

   A tornado has been reported in Barnes County, North Dakota recently.
   Current thinking is that one or two more mature, sustained and
   discrete storms may continue to acquire at least transient supercell
   characteristics/low-level rotation given the modest amounts of
   ambient streamwise vorticity available. Stretching of the ample
   vertical vorticity in the lowest few km of convective updrafts may
   be enhanced by the aforementioned 0-3km CAPE, with hybrid
   supercell/non-supercell tornadogenesis possible. By evening, cooling
   of the boundary layer will reduce low-level lapse rates and
   subsequent buoyancy, tempering the remaining tornado threat.

   Nonetheless, the threat for tornadoes is expected to be relatively
   isolated in nature, and given the spatially and temporally limited
   extent of the tornado threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this
   time.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46249646 46589797 47179865 47969807 48039714 47659603
               46789556 46339580 46249646