Mesoscale Discussion 0763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0832 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle into
   southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 221...

   Valid 240132Z - 240300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 221 continues.

   SUMMARY...A few supercells with the risk for severe hail and another
   couple of tornadoes continues into the 9-10 PM CDT time frame.  A
   new severe weather watch may be needed prior to the current 10 PM
   watch expiration time.

   DISCUSSION...Focused low-level convergence and warm advection is
   maintaining intense thunderstorm development along the frontal zone
   across the northeastern Texas Panhandle.  This is being supported by
   strong inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderately
   large CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the presence of strong
   low-level and deep layer shear.  This environment has been conducive
   to at least a couple of tornadic supercells, and may remain so at
   least into the 02-03Z time frame, before boundary layer instability
   begins to wane and upscale convective growth gradually continues.

   Supercell development also continues to develop and propagate off
   the dryline to the west of Lubbock.  Low-level shear is generally
   weaker across this area, but cells have probably been producing
   severe hail.  Some increase in tornadic potential may still not be
   out of the question during the next few hours, particularly with the
   lead supercell as it propagates northeast of Lubbock, closer to the
   strengthening southerly 850 mb jet axis.

   ..Kerr.. 05/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34000257 34630187 35440130 36410071 37220005 37669945
               36769925 35010022 34010064 33390147 33210284 34000257