Mesoscale Discussion 0734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas...Southwest
   Missouri...and Northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222006Z - 222200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
   tornadoes -- a few of which may be strong -- are expected. A tornado
   watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows boundary layer cumulus
   developing over portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
   northwest Arkansas, and southwest Missouri, as low-level moisture
   advects northward across the region. Surface dew points in the low
   70s F are overspreading the region, ahead of a stalled cold front.
   Along the front, elevated convection has developed and is moving
   parallel to the boundary. With continued diabatic heating and
   low-level moisture advection, further destabilization can be
   expected, with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg developing by late
   afternoon. 

   Given these thermodynamic conditions, convective initiation is
   expected within the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the front may
   eventually root into the boundary layer, and additional storms may
   develop in the warm sector, particularly in southern parts of the
   MCD area. As storms develop, effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt will
   help organize the convection into supercell structures. With
   effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2, tornadoes -- a few of which
   could be strong -- are possible, along with the threat for large
   hail and damaging winds. A tornado watch will likely be issued
   within the next hour.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35669518 35659603 36079676 37159695 38339563 38879401
               38249256 36809326 36129422 35669518