Mesoscale Discussion 0728
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

   Valid 212306Z - 220100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Several reports of funnel clouds, severe hail, and one
   tornado in northeast Kansas have occurred in the last few hours.
   Loss of better instability and low-level lapse rates with time
   should limit the tornado threat as the evening progresses. Cold air
   aloft will continue the threat for severe hail with any of the
   stronger storms.

   DISCUSSION...Modest buoyancy and effective shear have led to a
   mostly multicellular storm mode across severe thunderstorm watch
   208. Cold temperatures aloft associate with the mid-level low have
   help the stronger cells produce 1-1.5 inch hail over the past few
   hours. A few reports of funnel clouds have also been noted even with
   some of the weaker convection to the vorticity rich environment.
   While most funnels have been brief and not touched down, a storm
   along the occluded front was able to produced several tornado
   reports as it moved from Dickinson County to Riley County Kansas.
   Going forward, storms along the occluded front, where low-level
   shear is maximized, may be able to show transient low-level
   mesocyclones. However, activity should begin to diminish with time
   as storms will continue to lose access to unstable air. The greatest
   threat for sever will come from stronger cells given the cold air
   aloft. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible until low-level
   lapse rates decrease this evening.

   Activity will continue to move northward into southeast Nebraska.
   Convective trends will have to be monitored for a possible watch.
   Current probability of a watch for portions of southeast Nebraska is
   20%.

   ..Wendt.. 05/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   37599762 37759787 38129834 38369850 38709890 39239895
               39909848 40349678 39749582 38299584 37549723 37599762