Mesoscale Discussion 0625
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131414Z - 131615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with strong thunderstorms
   this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified in the
   Raleigh/Durham vicinity. These storms have developed along a surface
   boundary, with some large-scale support being provided by a
   shortwave trough to the north over the lower Great Lakes. While
   instability will likely remain relatively weak (MLCAPE of 500-1000
   J/kg), effective shear near 50 kt (as noted on the 12Z GSO sounding)
   and relatively cool temperatures aloft will support some hail
   potential with the strongest cells. 

   Due to the relatively limited spatial extent of the threat, the need
   for watch issuance is uncertain at this time, though some threat
   will likely continue through the morning along the frontal boundary.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/13/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35887940 36067824 36017646 35897582 35727569 35517607
               35437688 35487833 35507923 35887940