Mesoscale Discussion 0572
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern New Mexico and southeastern
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071949Z - 072145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms, including isolated
   supercells, appear likely to develop off the Sangre de Cristo
   Mountains, across and south of the Raton Mesa area through 3-5 PM
   MDT.  It is not yet certain that a watch will be required, but
   trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of the closed mid-level low now turning
   east-northeastward into the southern Rockies, orographic and
   large-scale forcing for ascent are contributing to the initiation of
   thunderstorms near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  At the same
   time, insolation within post-frontal easterly low-level to the lee
   of the mountains is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates
   and weak to modest boundary-layer destabilization.  As inhibition
   for boundary layer parcels continues to erode, storms will propagate
   east of the mountain through late afternoon, aided by 30+ kt
   southwesterly ambient mean flow.  With pronounced veering of lower
   through mid-tropospheric wind fields contributing to strong deep
   layer shear, a few supercells are possible, accompanied primarily by
   the risk for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37250434 37820433 37170363 36900319 35200320 35140433
               35930460 36900450 37250434