Mesoscale Discussion 0544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Areas affected...West-central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 052054Z - 052300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is possible across west-central KS
   by 21-22Z. A conditional supercell threat exists if a storm forms.
   Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus has recently been noted across
   west-central KS, to the north of Great Bend. The potential for
   initiation in the short term remains uncertain, given only weak
   surface confluence noted in recent surface obs, but continued
   heating should mostly remove any remaining MLCINH, so at least
   isolated thunderstorm development is possible across this region
   prior to 23Z. With moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of
   2000-2500 J/kg) and effective shear of 35-45 kt, a conditional
   supercell threat will exist should any storms initiate. Very large
   hail would be the primary threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates
   and relatively cold midlevel temperatures. 

   Watch issuance is possible across this region, due to the potential
   for initiation in the short-term, and also for the potential for
   severe thunderstorms to develop upstream and move into this area
   toward evening.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38369920 38729910 39119896 39139868 39189823 38089823
               37699845 37579868 37489894 37469927 37589956 37749945
               37939936 38369920