Mesoscale Discussion 0541
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Sun May 05 2019

   Areas affected...Western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051926Z - 052130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase with time
   this afternoon. Hail (potentially very large) and severe wind gusts
   will be the primary threats. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across far
   western KS, with additional cumulus noted along a weak cold front
   across northwest KS. The short-term evolution of the ongoing storms
   is uncertain due to lingering MLCINH immediately downstream, but
   continued heating south the cold front will further erode the cap
   with time, increasing the potential for sustained surface-based
   storms, both near the cold front and along a diffuse dryline across
   southwest KS. 

   Despite relatively limited boundary-layer moisture, cold
   temperatures aloft (-15C to -18C at 500 mb) at steep midlevel lapse
   rates are supporting MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg across far western
   KS to around 2000 J/kg further east, per 19Z objective mesoanalysis.
   Modest westerly midlevel flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40
   kt, which will support the potential for organized structures with
   time. While large-scale ascent is rather limited, a few supercells
   may eventually evolve later this afternoon. The environment will be
   quite favorable for hail, and a conditional threat for very large
   hail will be present with any supercell. Isolated severe wind gusts
   will also be possible. 

   While the short-term coverage of the severe threat remains
   uncertain, watch issuance is possible at some point this afternoon
   for portions of western KS if development of additional storms
   appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/05/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38850193 39360099 39640049 39770022 39679946 39239909
               38739917 38119940 37739961 37599983 37500035 37620163
               38000189 38850193