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Mesoscale Discussion 525 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Areas affected...extreme southeast TX...southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 040713Z - 040815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts are possible but the
coverage/intensity for severe/damaging gusts is uncertain. The
greatest risk for damaging gusts will accompany any
longer-lived/stronger mesovortices and surging bowing segments as
the squall line moves east into the lower Sabine Valley.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south squall line over
southeast TX extending into the western Gulf of Mexico. The airmass
downstream of this activity is moist/unstable with around 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE when modifying the 00z LCH raob. The KLCH VAD shows
relatively weak low-level winds beneath 35-40kt southwesterly 500mb
flow. Instrument measured gusts during the past 1-2 hours have
remained generally at or below 35kt, suggesting any risk for
damaging winds has been highly localized over southeast TX. The
expectation is the squall line will continue to move to the east
across the northwest Gulf Coast as a series of smaller-scale MCVs
associated with the squall line, move east towards the Sabine river
overnight.
In the near term, a persistent weak supercell will probably continue
to episodically intensify/weaken east of Lake Charles. Although a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out, the weak low-level flow will
tend to limit the tornado risk. However, a localized stronger gust
may accompany the area near the mesocyclone.
..Smith/Edwards.. 05/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30479471 31309217 29559163 29659321 29549431 30479471
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