Mesoscale Discussion 0515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031720Z - 031945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal hail threat and brief tornado will be possible
   across the Houston area over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
   in place across southeast Texas with dewpoints in the lower 70s F. A
   small cluster of thunderstorms is located just to the west of the
   Houston area, associated with an MCV evident on water vapor imagery.
   Surface winds ahead of the MCV are backed to the southeast which is
   enhancing low-level shear. The Houston WSR-88D VWP shows veering
   winds with height in the lowest 3 km AGL with 0-3 km storm relative
   helicity near 220 m2/s2. For this reason, the stronger cells with
   the MCV will rotate and could produce a brief tornado. Also, hail
   will be possible with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30189581 29879629 29629633 29409600 29219518 29449487
               29849476 30149493 30189581