Mesoscale Discussion 0512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 AM CDT Fri May 03 2019

   Areas affected...middle coastal plain of TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031239Z - 031345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of supercells have recently developed within a
   moist airmass immediately east of an eastward-moving MCV.  A weak
   tornado is possible in addition to a localized severe gust.  The
   localized nature of the expected threat will probably preclude a
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCV near San Antonio moving east
   and a couple of supercells have developed.  The CRP 12z raob showed
   a very moist boundary layer (16 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio)
   with moderate buoyancy.  Despite somewhat modest flow in the lowest
   6km, the strongly veering profile has contributed to around 40kt
   0-6km shear---supporting storm organization.  Current expectation is
   for the supercell risk to persist for another hour or two before
   gradually diminishing.  Nonetheless, a weak/brief tornado is
   possible along with a locally damaging gust in the vicinity of a
   mesocyclone.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 05/03/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28969764 29719713 30129692 29839641 29219632 28989660
               28969764