Mesoscale Discussion 0498
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019

   Areas affected...much of north Texas into Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118...119...

   Valid 020437Z - 020630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 118, 119
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for localized damaging wind gusts or hail
   persists across a large area tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A slow-moving MCS now stretches from western AR across
   northeast TX, and draped westward across north TX. This system
   continues to process a lot of air with an expansive cloud shield
   noted on IR. A moist,unstable air mass will maintain this system for
   several hours with increased southerly sfc to 850 mb flow of 30-40
   kt. 

   Given the primarily east-west orientation of the line beneath modest
   westerlies aloft, little movement has occurred. Eastern portions of
   the line have surged the most, with more of a northeast-southwest
   orientation across AR/ArkLaTex suggesting a better chance of
   damaging winds.

   To the west, more of an anafrontal regime is noted, with new
   convective elements forming and shifting north as the outflow sinks
   south. Meanwhile, the western end of the line across northwest TX
   has maintained the most vigorous convection with large hail
   persisting in cells.

   With a largely uncapped air mass ahead of this MCS, there is little
   reason to forecast much change over the next several hours, except
   for a slow, south to southeast progression spatially.

   ..Jewell.. 05/02/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32820021 32809910 32829833 32839718 32869638 32929572
               33199517 33639470 34269422 34939388 35109296 34749251
               33959266 32999285 32279315 31729401 31469521 31359662
               31449790 31699900 32099964 32320002 32590023 32820021