Mesoscale Discussion 0424
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

   Areas affected...North Central into Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231836Z - 232030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase across parts of
   Central and Southwest TX this afternoon, with the risk of large hail
   and damaging wind in the strongest cells.  A severe thunderstorm
   watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a weak surface cold front
   extending from near Gainesville, TX southwestward through the
   Abilene, TX vicinity - to a surface low eastern Pecos County. Clouds
   are slowly thinning along and south of the boundary, where latest
   mesoanalysis data suggests the MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and
   little cap.  Visible satellite imagery shows a deepening cu field
   along this zone of weak low-level convergence, and CAM solutions
   agree that thunderstorm activity will commence in the next few
   hours.

   Forecast soundings show steep low and midlevel lapse rates, along
   with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear to support supercell storm
   structures capable of large (perhaps very large) hail.  Weak
   low-level winds contribute to rather straight hodographs (especially
   in southwest TX), increasing the risk of a few persistent
   left-moving supercells also capable of large hail.  
   Present indications are that a severe thunderstorm watch will likely
   be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Hart/Thompson.. 04/23/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31720204 32810000 33309861 32849779 32009836 30910054
               29460115 29910229 30760268 31720204