Mesoscale Discussion 0367
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

   Areas affected...central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171944Z - 172115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may become capable of producing mainly a few
   instances of hail and gusty winds across central Iowa this
   afternoon. At this time, overall threat does not appear sufficient
   for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon, pockets of diabatic warming and
   modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 50s F have resulted
   in a corridor of marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over
   IA. Storms have initiated along a cold front across west central IA
   and in association with an MCV. Winds have veered in the warm sector
   resulting in weak to modest low-level shear. However, a belt of
   stronger winds in the base of a progressive shortwave trough is
   resulting in 30-40 kt bulk shear, sufficient for both multicells and
   possibly some marginal supercell structures as storms develop
   eastward through the warm sector next few hours.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 04/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...

   LAT...LON   40879455 41659453 42659437 43019384 42799298 42019250
               41079279 40709377 40879455