Mesoscale Discussion 0360
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

   Areas affected...Central and Northeastern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150433Z - 150630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of central
   and northeastern New York over the next hour or two. The threat is
   expected to remain isolated but weather watch issuance can still not
   be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
   in west-central New York extending southward into central
   Pennsylvania. A 993 mb low is analyzed in western New York with a
   warm front extending east-southeastward across central and
   southeastern New York. The northern end of a linear MCS extends
   northward to just east of Lake Ontario on the north side of the warm
   front where instability is weak. In spite of this, a 50 to 65 kt
   low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP in central New York which is
   contributing to very strong wind profiles. Due to the strong deep
   layer evident on the Burlington and Albany WSR-88D VWPs, the
   northern end of the line could have a severe threat over the next
   couple of hours. Isolated wind damage would be the primary threat
   along bowing portions of the line.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44137625 43517625 43207607 42607450 42677357 43497324
               44467343 44647466 44437567 44137625