Mesoscale Discussion 0053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0919 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

   Areas affected...portions of western and northern New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 251519Z - 252015Z

   SUMMARY...Lake Effect snow bands will bring periods of heavy snow
   and reduced visibility today across parts of western and northern
   NY. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour are possible and may
   extend downstream into parts of central and northern.

   DISCUSSION...West-southwest surface to 850mb flow is noted in
   surface observations as well as 12z regional RAOBs and 88-D VWP
   data. This has resulted in two lake effect snow bands stretching
   across parts of western and northern NY. Heavy snow with rates
   around 1 inch per hour has been reported this morning, with heavy to
   moderate snow stretching well downstream of the immediate lake shore
   areas. In fact, 1 inch per hour rates were reported in Madison
   County around 14z. Westerly flow rapidly increases from around 10-20
   kt at the surface to near 40 kt around 1 km. Favorable orientation
   across the lakes and strong low level flow should allow these snow
   bands to continue through the day and persist well downstream toward
   the western Adirondacks. It is possible that closer to Lake Ontario
   and Lake Erie that snowfall rates may even exceed 1 inch per hour at
   times. 

   Slight shifts to the north or south of low level winds may result in
   some small shifts in the heaviest snow bands, but the current
   location of the two bands impacting the MCD area should remain
   fairly steady-state through the day. As a result, anyone traveling
   north-south across western into central/northern NY could see rapid
   changes in snow intensity and visibility. In addition to these heavy
   lake effect bands, the surface pressure gradient is quite strong
   across the region and surface winds around 15-25 mph with some
   higher gusts will be possible for much of the day. Conditions are
   not expected to improve until later tonight.

   ..Leitman.. 01/25/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43247917 43787798 44247642 44397576 44397514 44337458
               44187430 43807405 43427387 43197383 43097406 43037476
               42967573 42927674 42547806 42477836 42107944 42127969
               42397987 43247917