Mesoscale Discussion 0040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

   Areas affected...coastal North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201126Z - 201330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds could occur early this morning
   across coastal NC and the Outer Banks vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented convective line has shown modest
   signs of increased updraft depth recently including an increase in
   cloud-ground lightning as far north as the middle part of the NC
   coast as of 6AM EST/11Z. Aided by appreciable cyclogenesis/forcing
   for ascent, this wavy/somewhat broken convective line may continue
   to exhibit an increase in convective organization and intensity, at
   least to some degree, particularly along the immediate NC
   coast/Outer Banks before it exits the coast by around 9-10AM EST.

   While a brief tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out coincident
   with very strong low-level shear, the potential for locally damaging
   winds would likely be the primary concern given the marginal nature
   of boundary layer moisture (near 60 F dewpoints) and an observed
   tendency for near-surface winds to veer more southwesterly. The
   overall perceived marginality of the severe risk, along with a
   relatively small spatiotemporal window for such a threat, are
   expected to preclude a Watch issuance.

   ..Guyer.. 01/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34597692 35367661 36087581 35727515 34897544 34487617
               34597692