Mesoscale Discussion 0026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 AM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

   Areas affected...Central and southern MS and parts of adjacent LA
   Parishes

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191104Z - 191300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch may be needed through this morning for much of
   central and southern Mississippi, and adjacent parts of Louisiana
   for storms producing primarily a severe wind threat.  However, a
   tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Periodic increases in storm intensities and
   organization have occurred with the band of storms extending from
   central MS to east-central LA.  Meanwhile, radar imagery indicated a
   nearly solid band of storms extending from eastern AR through
   northeast to southwest LA, with this activity moving east at close
   to 40 kt.  Although warm sector has only gradually moistened
   overnight into central and southern MS with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
   strong deep-layer and low-level shear suggests additional organized
   storms will be possible.  The ongoing positively tilted orientation
   of the southern Plains trough is expected to become somewhat more
   neutrally oriented this morning as the trough advances toward the
   lower Mississippi Valley.  Forcing for ascent with this trough
   combined with some additional boundary-layer moistening suggests
   even modest destabilization could prove favorable for an organized
   severe threat, given the strength of the available shear.  Low-level
   hodograph curvature across the warm sector per area VADs suggests a
   continued potential for rotating updrafts, with an attendant tornado
   threat, while damaging winds will be possible as well.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 01/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31399196 32719077 33088947 32868848 31888847 31238865
               30888944 30699042 30589193 30689251 31399196