Mesoscale Discussion 0007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 AM CST Fri Jan 04 2019

   Areas affected...Western/Central FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040704Z - 040900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-probability threat exists for damaging wind gust
   and/or a brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so across the
   western and central FL Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...A strongly forced but shallow convective band continues
   to move eastward at 25-30 kt into the far western FL Peninsula. Air
   mass ahead of this line is modestly moist with dewpoints generally
   in the mid/upper 60s. However, warm temperatures aloft and the
   resulting lack of steeper lapse rates is tempering overall
   instability. Modified RAP soundings estimate MLCAPE on the order of
   250-350 J/kg across the western/central FL Panhandle.

   In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, kinematic fields are
   quite strong. Recent EVX VAD profiles show deep unidirectional
   southwesterly flow aloft. When modifying these profiles with
   observed surface winds from VPS, estimates of 0-1 km SRH are over
   220 m2/s2 and of 0-1 km bulk shear are over 30 kt. This strongly
   sheared low-level environment supports the potential for storm
   rotation, even within shallow convection. As such, there is a
   low-probability threat for a damaging wind gust and perhaps even a
   brief tornado during the next 2 hours or so.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 01/04/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30668738 30778707 30848642 30798564 30548549 30188573
               30228625 30258684 30228740 30668738