Mesoscale Discussion 0740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...southwest...central...and north-central
   OK...south-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 220...221...

   Valid 170029Z - 170130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 220, 221 continues.

   SUMMARY...It remains unclear how far east the tornado risk will
   develop with ongoing supercells in western OK.  Large hail and some
   tornado risk will probably accompany the storms east of Tornado
   Watch 220 into parts of central OK.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows supercells over western OK with very
   large hail values per MRMS MESH with recent confirming reports.  A
   likely strong tornado likely occurred around 0000-0015Z over
   west-central OK with the strongest velocity signature this evening. 

   Stunted 0-2 km lapse rates (less than 6 degrees/km) and moderate
   low-level moisture (dewpoints ranging from 67 degrees F on the
   eastern edge of the Watch 220 to 65 degrees F on the I-35 corridor)
   will likely limit the tornado risk with further east extent towards
   the I-35 corridor compared to the ongoing potential over western OK.
   The 00Z OUN raob showed a stout capping inversion and large MLCINH
   (-300 J/kg).  However, strong supercells and their internal dynamics
   may compensate to maintain some threat for a tornado immediately
   east of the current watch.  With time, it appears the severe risk
   with the supercells as they move into central OK will transition to
   mainly hail/wind over central OK as storms move east of the moist
   axis.

   ..Smith.. 05/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   34539970 35909956 37019855 36979767 36399728 34519828
               34539970