MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242023Z - 242200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SUPER-RAPID SCAN 1-MINUTE SATELLITE DATA REVEAL A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN MO
   WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS WHERE IT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A SFC
   TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THE WARM-SECTOR CU FIELD TO THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AIDED BY ONGOING HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A SUBTLE
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. 

   WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED/CLEARED...SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
   90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE SUPPORTING
   MODERATE BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE
   THE KINEMATIC PROFILE IS CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW...STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AS WELL AS AMPLE VENTING OF
   THESE UPDRAFTS. IN TURN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CORES...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37029822 37239560 37519295 39069288 39549368 39359746
               38809838 37559907 37229899 37079859 37029822