MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0838 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...NW IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 060138Z - 060245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 03Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...AND NW IL AS THE ONGOING MCS
   CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...STORM MOTION OF THE ONGOING MCS IS ESTIMATED AT 300/38
   KT...TAKING IT TO THE EDGE OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 326
   AROUND 0230-0300Z. REGIONAL VADS SHOW INCREASING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM FAR SE MN SEWD INTO NW
   IL. ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDE BY THIS INCREASING WAA AS WELL AS THE
   ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE ONGOING MCS AND THE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT
   TRACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SW WI...NE IA...AND NW IL. PRIMARY
   THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH HAIL AS THE SECONDARY
   THREAT. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   THE BOUNDARY AND MOIST NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

   ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 07/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43409214 44279085 44248965 43898917 43058896 42188928
               41519072 41969195 42609242 43409214