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Mesoscale Discussion 1419 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST WV AND WESTERN/CENTRAL VA
AND INTO MD/FAR NORTHERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142210Z - 150015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WITH RELATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
SPREAD ACROSS WV/FAR EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA
AND POSSIBLY MD/FAR NORTHERN NC. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS
PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ENE-WSW ACROSS WV
INTO NORTHEAST KY AS OF 22Z/6PM EDT. A 43-KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY
MEASURED AT HUNTINGTON WV. THIS SQUALL LINE IS BEING AIDED BY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES...AND ON THE
LARGER-SCALE BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER
OH RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D-DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST THAT
MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF VA/NC REMAIN SOMEWHAT INHIBITED VIA EARLY-DAY
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NC. WITH A VIABLE POTENTIAL FOR
SQUALL LINE-SUSTENANCE ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...
LAT...LON 37438146 38578035 39727812 38827702 36177918 36588283
37438146
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