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Mesoscale Discussion 246 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SRN/ERN IA...NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091729Z - 091900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 19Z FROM NORTHERN
MO INTO NWRN IL.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE/FOCUS ASCENT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS FROM NWRN MO...INTO SERN IA BY 21Z. LATEST VIS IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENING THERMALS ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT OVER IA/MO AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF MCI TO NEAR
LWD. AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP.
STRONG SHEAR WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO UTILIZE SHEAR ALONG E-W BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/NRN
IL AND TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH THE MOST INTENSE STRUCTURES.
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 04/09/2015
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41619297 42369110 42628961 42288905 41718917 41188969
40729063 39689248 40069391 41619297
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