MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...538...

   VALID 040442Z - 040615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537...538...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW 538 INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   NEWD FROM NCNTRL KS ACROSS SE NEB INTO CNTRL IA ALONG WHICH STRONG
   TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN NEB
   AREAS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F
   AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SRN KS
   WITH THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING INTO SERN NEB. THIS IS
   ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS WW 538 WITH 35 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR
   EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE MORE
   DOMINANT CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   MAINLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
   INCREASE IF THE LINE DEVELOPING IN SERN NEB CAN ORGANIZE A COLD
   POOL. 

   FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF WW 537...INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH
   NEWD EXTENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
   THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE
   LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CNTRL IA AS THE CLUSTER OF STORMS SOUTH OF
   OMAHA MOVES INTO THE AREA.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 10/04/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40679130 40299408 40089595 40239702 40739744 41399762
               41869686 42079512 42189379 42239260 41959118 40679130