MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152028Z - 152200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEB AND
   NW KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS NCNTRL
   KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW
   ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MESONALYSIS ESTIMATING
   MLCAPE NOW IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED
   STORMS IS ALREADY INTENSIFYING IN CLAY COUNTY KS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
   SALINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL CLOUD STREETS
   OF CUMULUS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN SW NEB. THE WRF-HRRR
   DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 22Z AND
   23Z AND MOVES STRONG CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS NW KS. THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE
   GOODLAND WSR-88D VWP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES EARLY THIS
   EVENING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
   COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

   ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39850181 40070156 40400142 40710126 40850075 40659992
               40419905 40199847 40139743 40009666 39599614 39099610
               38649639 38449722 38499765 38519863 38420058 38660192
               39150228 39850181