MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 161...
   
   VALID 160040Z - 160145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK. TORNADO/LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS
   THE I-35 CORRIDOR...LIKELY TO INCLUDE AREAS NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF FORT
   WORTH IN ADDITION TO LOCATIONS NEAR/NORTH OF DENTON THROUGH
   01Z-02Z/8-9PM CDT.
   
   DISCUSSION...INITIATING NEAR A NNE-SSW ORIENTED CONFLUENCE
   AXIS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WIDELY SCATTERED
   DISCRETE/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX IN A GENERAL CORRIDOR
   20-40 MILES TO THE WEST OF I-35 AS OF 0030Z/730PM CDT. MULTIPLE
   TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEVERAL OF
   THE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...WHICH ARE NOW EXHIBITING MORE OF AN
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AS THEY CROSS THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS...COINCIDENT WITH A NORTH-CENTRAL TX CORRIDOR OF 2-3MB/2HR
   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL /SOUTHEASTERLY/
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   SIMILAR TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOTED PER WSR-88D VWP DATA
   FROM FORT WORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HR...THE VERY RECENT 00Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH INDICATES A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/WIND
   PROFILE FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH
   HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE A BIT MODEST...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH LENGTH/CURVATURE EXISTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KM WITH 0-1
   KM SRH AROUND 200-250 M2/S2. MLCAPE WAS AROUND 1700 J/KG WITH VERY
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM.
   
   MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...STORMS ONGOING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX MAY
   MATURE AS THEY INTERCEPT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE
   BROWNWOOD VICINITY. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 648.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32709794 33479781 33779723 33829645 33309651 31059734
               31799943 32209811 32709794