MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149...
   
   VALID 082258Z - 090030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST ACROSS NW
   TX...WRN OK...CNTRL OK AND SRN KS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
   IN THE SRN HALF OF WW 149.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER THE OK
   PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR
   ERN TX PANHANDLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
   DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN TO THE 2000 TO 3000
   J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS WW 149 SHOWS 850
   TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IS
   IDEAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. SFC OBS SHOW TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
   SPEEDS RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO...A TORNADO THREAT MAY
   DEVELOP WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
   TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK WHERE STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY PRESENT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SOMEWHAT LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND A
   LACK OF A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   ..BROYLES/HART.. 05/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
   AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   38309633 38649703 38579749 38269820 37929884 36829960
               35999965 35309978 34690011 33830075 33300071 32950029
               32889973 32909884 33409758 34559692 36939581 38309633