MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH NWRN TX INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 091839Z - 092045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE...ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY FROM WCNTRL-NWRN TX INTO
   SWRN-SCNTRL OK. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   LARGE HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS FROM WRN OK SWWD THROUGH WCNTRL AND SWRN TX. THE PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR HAS CLEARED OUT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS
   BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN OK WITH A BROADER AREA OF CLEARING FARTHER
   SOUTH INTO NWRN AND WCNTRL TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND
   WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL CAPE MAGNITUDES WITH 800-1500 J/KG
   LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
   OVERALL INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. LLJ WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VEERING AND WEAKENING
   LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM
   SECTOR. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL REMAIN
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   32789955 34269882 35169864 35129686 32669777 30969961
               31210047 32789955