MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...
   
   VALID 282314Z - 290045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 310 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY
   THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO WIND AS TSTMS ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE
   LINE.
   
   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A DRYLINE
   LOCATED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM FDR TO ODO. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
   90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
   EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. 23Z AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPH WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT. LATEST SFC
   OBSERVATIONS DEPICT BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS... ESPECIALLY
   ALONG THE RED RIVER AND FARTHER N INTO CNTRL OK. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
   ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING.
   LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH LCLS SHOULD KEEP THE
   TORNADO THREAT LOW. 
   
   BOTH AREAS OF ACTIVITY /NW TX AND W TX/ APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NW TX ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD
   WHILE EWD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY IN THE W TX MAY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
   CONSOLIDATION INTO A LINE WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
   MODEL GUIDANCE AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN ANOTHER HOUR
   OR TWO.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/28/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   31340219 33080220 35299763 33559764 31340219