MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK AND PART OF
   NORTHWEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 160...
   
   VALID 140035Z - 140130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 160 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
   AND LARGE HAIL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF OK AND PERHAPS
   ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   MOST CONCENTRATED/SUSTAINED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/ADJACENT NORTHWEST TX OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ONGOING SUPERCELL IN KIOWA COUNTY OK HAD
   TEMPORARILY WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER PROLIFIC INTENSITY AS OF
   0000Z...BUT A REINTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A RELATIVELY
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK. THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
   HAS APPEARED TO FAVOR THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   LEFT BY EARLIER STORMS. A MORE STABLE RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CURRENTLY
   EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL OK...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
   NORMAN WAS INDICATIVE OF ONLY A VERY SHALLOW STABLE LAYER /0.5 KM/.
   AS SUCH...COLD POOL ABATEMENT/OUTFLOW MODIFICATION COULD YET OCCUR
   THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL OK AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
   
   WEST OF THE LEAD STORM ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY...ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE CHILDRESS TX
   AREA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST/EVENTUALLY WEST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THESE
   STORMS ALSO LIKELY TO FAVOR THE PERPETUALLY-REINFORCED WEST-EAST
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000-2500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/ BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS ALONG/SOUTH OF IT. REGIONAL WIND
   PROFILERS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS ARE INDICATIVE OF A
   STRENGTHENING/BACKING TREND WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM DURING THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP ALREADY INDICATIVE
   OF 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THIS SAME TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   THIS EVENING AND HELP MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT
   TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST OK/ADJACENT PARTS OF
   TX.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34209999 34580050 35370004 36829775 36499535 35489648
               34179897 34209999